Comments: HUI has now slipped just under the 1 year trendline support. More downside is possible. The ideal place to bet on Gold stocks would be 260. I exited most of my positions yesterday after growing a bit cautious on whether we can actually sustain a bounce at the trendline. Two things are potentially working against Gold stocks at the moment: (i) a potentially bearish general equities market, and (ii) the fact that the USD may enjoy a brief rally as it is still far away from its 200 day MA and is soon approaching some downtrend resistance. I'm kind of hoping that Gold miners do roll over. 260 HUI would be the perfect set up. any lower and the Head & Shoulders would be activated--but that would be impossible on the fundamentals that are prevailing, thus a perfect long set up.
Comments: Gold is right at trendline support.
Comments: S&P500 looks like it's about to roll over. If it does that, chances are it may temporarily take the Gold miners down with it.
New Strategy: I'm going to be watching the general market more closely now. There's a decent chance that it may be rolling over here. Accordingly, a good strategy in this market would be to short the general market (S&P500/Nazdaq) when the general market is falling, and go long Gold miners when the general market is bouncing. If the breakdown develops, that may be my strategy for the coming weeks.
Sentiment: Short term uncertain, but more bearish than bullish.
Portfolio PM Exposure: Mostly out of PMS for the moment, but keeping my KBX position--Kimber is due to come out with its prefeasibility study results in September, so probably next week. Also a small position in SH, a bear ETF. I may build my position there and swing from bearish S&P500 on the market sell offs, and long Gold miners on the market bounces.
1 comment:
Kospi broke 20MA which means there could be sharper drop in a short period of time. But, strangly, I don't feel any fear yet. My gut may be not working any longer. As some people said, it could be just beautiful slowing down or adjustment period coming before long term bulish.
Thanks to foreign investers' over selling, I may have to witness all the blue blood sea in my screen for a while.
Actully, they just call japaness doji or whatsoever 'cross'. A famouse lawyer and invester once mentioned 'cross of fate', which explained well of the situation, i thought.
Well. I think i'll just sit back this time and wait until it bounces back. Very passive invester I am,,,..humm..
A guy also said that watching divergence trend is very important. However unfortunately my computer only shows what we called 'belly button'.
Anyhow, it seems your precious metal prices are going up while the general market looks not very possitive. Hope you won't need to work until in your 80s.
Well..Good luck with your techinical analysis & 'gut' feeling. Aja Aja!! I learned a lot from you site today.
By the way, I can check the real market price of gold in Seoul tomorrow. How long would you think it takes to be reflected the price in the world market in Korean market? immediately? Hope the ajeossi doesn't know about the fact that it's going up.
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