Apologies again for my absence, if you have been reading this blog and hoping for any updates or hoping to hear my thoughts about market movements.
From the investment perspective, I'm glad to say that I've reached my basic retirement goal. I achieved it in early 2016 (February?). Let's hope for more in 2017.
I've been out of work in the past few months due to health and personal matters. But I'm getting better now. During my rest period, I've been able to take stock of my portfolio, inventoried various investment options available for me here in Korea, and assess the market situation in equities, commodities and currencies.
The equity and commodity markets have generally run up since Trump's election and they look like they are getting a bit stretched--but maybe they are stretched because of the promise of fiscal stimulus by Trump and elsewhere in the world, which is helping to underpin.
Equities: I'll be looking to take some equity fund profits soon. S&P at 2275 now. I'll probably take some equity fund exposure off the table around S&P 2300 (KOSPI 2100?), though I feel it can eventually reach 2400. Samsung Electronics (KOSPI bellwether) looks very stretched. Time to "peel back" some exposure soon. Maybe sell a bit or all of EWI (Italy).
Commodities: Commodities have run up, including gold. I think oil (XOI) and metals can continue to climb a bit more. Gold looks good to run a bit for now, especially the COT picture. My newer positions in Gold are still underwater, but my old position should be sellable at a very nice profit. Hopefully, I'll be able to trade out of at least some of my newer positions. Gold miners a partial sell at around 50 day moving average (218)? Maybe a bit above? Sell ILF (Latin America) to take profits as the chart looks mixed now.
Currencies: I sold some USDs around 1200 and a bit below. Now KRW is starting to rebound. Might go to 1150? AUD/KRW looks like it might climb above 880--sell AUD at around 890 or sooner? Sell ZAR soon (when selling gold miners?) ZAR/KRW at 87 now. I bought ZAR at 76. Time to sell ZAR between 87-90?
What looks good from the chart perspective--Mexican Peso, Turkey Lira (glad I added some Lira at 303 to KRW, but damned lady at Hana Bank gave me an incorrect quote). Japanese equities--nibble on any large drop as Yen still looks like it might eventually get to 120. GBP might have one more sell off or plunge in it as rumors of Hard Brexit are heating up and not even Trump's willingness to do a quick trade deal seems to be helping to bolster it much. I'd be interested in buying between 1.20 to 1.10. The lower the better. At 1418 GBP/KRW and 1.203 GBP/USD now.
What doesn't look good--Korean Healthcare fund. MYR. Chinese equities (but not Hang Seng). And I'll probably need smarts not to take a loss on some of my gold miner exposure. But so far, so good as it's climbing back up...
What looks uncertain--Euro and EU. And now, EU has Trump as an avowed enemy. Not good.
