Comments: A doji finish to the week on the daily HUI chart creates a 50/50 possibility of a weak bounce next week. I wouldn't get my hopes up too high however. A finish on a hammer candlestick would have been a much more promising ending. There was some support at 298 HUI in January, February and March of this year, but it would be a difficult to expect that this would now reemerge as a major source of support now.
Comments: The weekly HUI chart is bearish for the intermediate term with the break of the 1.5 year RSI uptrend foreshadowing an imminent break of the uptrend. 260 HUI looks like a likely target after the break occurs, which would then create the possibility of a very large bullish (falling) wedge to end the intermediate term bear market.
Sentiment: Medium Term Bearish.
Current PM Portfolio Exposure: 90%; been buying into the weakness in hopes of a bounce...
Gain/Loss for the Week: -11.73% (at this rate, I might as well be thinking in terms of a 30 year retirement plan, rather than a 3 year...)
2 comments:
wow...this blog is seriously incredible..what a chartist!!
Good job! considering current plummet,,,-11 is not that bad. (working until in your 70s wouldn't that bad..)
So, you can see, what we call, the 'cross of fate' last Friday. A export said it's a big chance of going up.. or down (50:50 chance-hum....I hated that comment. that's why the chart can only explain what happened in the past, never the future?)
anyway,is current gold price trend related to interest rate or FX rate? (just out of curiosity) I used to spend lots of time to read all the materials re the stock market, but in reality, the gain/loss was almost similar between trading after 6-hour analysis a day and buying based on just your gut. A strange world!!
Hope you succeed in the surfing (we call it surfing...^^ buying more when the price goes down. that's what I recently did. it worked for me this time.)
By the way, would you have any principles that you keep when you trade? like selling point when it goes down?(that is important, but I never do...oh that's the limit price trading, I guess)
Sorry for not metal related comment. don't know much about the subject. good luck~ Aja Aja Fighting!!
Thanks for your comments! It looks like things are starting to turn around now a little bit and I am at least well positoned to take advantage of any bounce.
The recent downtrend has been primarily the result of a lack of physical (jewelry) demand in Asia as well as short term easing of geopolitical tensions reflected in dropping oil prices. Currency issues have not played a major role in the recent sell off because the USD hasn't really moved much recently relative to other currencies.
Funny that they call the Japanese doji candlestick a "cross of fate" in Korea...
Despite charting's limitations, I find it extremely helpful. It's true that a comment like a "50/50" chance of rising may not sound very hlpeful, but when the chart is going down day after day, a 50/50 chance for a reversal is actually pretty decent odds. The more bullish ending on Friday would have been a "hammer" (it looks like a "T", which is generally a sign of reversal following a sell off), rather than a "doji" (looks like a "+"), since a doji indicates only indecision, but when it comes during big rises or falls, a doji is also reasonably predictive of an imminent direction change.
I agre, psychological factors and "gut" feelings are important. but only if you know how to read and react to them. Generally speaking, if somebody is new to the market, it's usually better not to follow your gut feeling, since trading can be a bit counterintuitive (like buying when you feel fear and selling when you feel great)... it's learning to buy when you're afraid etc. that is the hard part. These days, psychological factors are probably 30 to 40% of my decision, the rest is technical analysis. I think it's posisible to achieve similar results using just your feelings, but it takes some practice to understand the significance of feelings in particular contexts.
As for principles for how I trade, there are quite a few which I try to keep. I try to pay attention to trendlines a lot. Also, as I mentioned before, I try to sell when I feel giddy and buy when I can smell fear. I often check my feelings before and after the trading day. If something is bothering me right before I sleep after I go to bed, I sometimes get up and change the trade (sell/buy etc.) I rarely use limit orders--in fact not at all. The problem with limit orders is that, if you don't use them precisely, it's easy to get stopped out. I've been fairly successful without the limits. There are other indicator-related principles that I use, though I try to keep things fairly simple. I rely on only a handful of technical factors, focussing primarily on:
1. trendlines; I always draw the main trendlines on all my charts.
2.relative strengh oscillator (oscillates between 0 to 100; it's the top line on my charts) (I look at the trend in the oscillator, as well as possible divergence from the price, as well as heavily overbought/oversold readings)
3.chart patterns (head&shoulders, trinagles etc.) If a pattern is there, I will spot it. I stick to the more significant patterns and don't try to overspot for obscure patterns.
If I feel like I need to get more information, I also consider Bollinger (volatility) Bands, trading volume and moving averages. I specifically don't use Fibaonnaci retracements or Elliot Wave analysis, because I think they are arbitrary and kind of silly.
Great to hear from you. Stop by again!
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