Thursday, May 03, 2007

Precious Metals Sector Recap

1. There was only one analyst who had an estimate, but RGLD missed it by 33%, making 14 cents per share earnings vs. estimate of 21 cents per share. With a P/E ratio of 45, it's hard to imagine how it is possible that RGLD could be trading up today with such a miss, though admittedly, I didn't read through the whole report or listened to the CC yet. By the way, it seems strange that the analyst keeps missing the earnings numbers for RGLD. I'm hardly an expert in this but it seems that royalty streams shouldn't be too difficult to estimate once you have an idea of the approximate production from the relevant mines.

2. CDE announces a merger with 2 companies that are affiliated with each other for a deal value of $1.1 billion. CDE only down about 2% so far however and it's trading right at that support which is just below $4.

3. PAAS has bounced back nicely since their miss of a few days ago. It seems that this PAAS has stockpiles of concentrate that had not been sold yet so that mined ore should create revenues this coming quarter.

4. As for gold, I don't think the bottom is in place yet. Still need lower Gold to work off some of that bearish COT commercial net shorts. In fact, I don't see how we can get a sustainable rally without lower Gold prices, unless the Commercials pull back on the net shorts at the end of the week.

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