I think we're almost at a bottom for gold and Gold miners. It's getting very close to the trendline on the HUI and we recently bounced down from 5.00 on the Gold to XAU ratio. The $82.50 to $83.00 area looks like a steel ceiling for the USDX.
The only negative factor is the net commercial short position in the COTs. I'm hoping that as a result of the recent sell off, the net short position will go down significantly.
Fundamentally, I've only been keeping a little attention recently to the numbers coming out on the U.S. economy, but generally speaking, 2 out of 3, if not 3 out of 4, economic reports are Gold positive these days. The USD is also taking hits on the geopolitical front.So fundamentals are in place for a rally, in my opinion.
I think a part of the selling right now is due to the bad memories of the Gold sell off last May which occurred around this time. Seasonality turns negative around this time, but I think that this time, it is less relevant because this time, the Gold surge will be driven by currency considerations, rather than women buying gold jewelry in China and India.
I think the next targets will be 360 HUI and then, not long afterwards, 400. It wouldn't surprise me to see HUI go to 325 first though.
2 comments:
I don't think it will be at a bottom until after options expire.
That's possible. But options expiration is just noise, I'm not going to worry about that too much.
Bob, by the way, I had some questions to ask you about GSS. Do you think you could e-mail me when you have a chance? titan_of_metals@yahoo.com
I don't think I have your e-mail address. Cheers~
Post a Comment