Thursday, February 22, 2007

Inflation Confusion

1. It appears that we're back in the land of inflation confusion. Yesterday's surprising CPI print which showed higher than exected inflation both in the headline and core level, led to a surprising result. Gold was up AND the U.S. dollar was up. Chuck Butler, the President of Everbank World Markets, had the following comment today on this continuing confusion about inflation and what it really entails:

"Yes, this goes back to the Pfennig I wrote a couple of weeks ago about how things have changed over the years, and that low inflation doesn't warrant a strong currency any longer... The markets crave high interest rates... And you don't get high interest rates without inflation! This thought process is demented... Unfortunately, that's the thought process in the markets these days, so we have to play the game."


2. It appears the insurgents in Iraq are using new tactics, blowing up a couple of tankers filled with Chlorine gas recently in so called "dirty" chemical attacks. Meanwhile, another helicopter was brought down by small arms fire. "Army Lt. Gen. Ray Odierno said the military has noted similarities in some of the eight helicopter incidents in the past month in which aircraft were either shot down or landed under fire. A few of them might have been ambushed, he said." 8 choppers have been downed recently.

3. Another surprise was the Yen trading at 10 year lows against some currencies following the BOJ's 0.25% interest rate hike to 0.5%. Not many things are going the way one would think they should. Though, frankly, I'm not that surprised that the Yen has been weak. In fact, I fully expect it to be weaker if the BOJ continues to manage it the way it has. The Yen is basically a third world currency with plenty of inflation in the pipeline already. They're a "mere" 19 rate hikes behind the U.S., and the U.S.'s 5.25% isn't exactly ultra restrictive in any case.

4. A ">$2 million coin anyone?

5. NEM and ABX announced earnings today. Looks like cash costs are rising all around.

6. Keep your eyes on this stock: Gold Resource Corporation.

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