Two metal companies operate not all that far away from the conflict zone. Considering that the escalation of the conflict may have regional consequences, with possible spill over of refugees, and in fact may involve a regional war which coiuld attract Islamic radicals, it's perhaps not too surprising that these two companies, Tanzania Royalty Exploration Corp. and Nevsun Resources Ltd. have sold off hard recently as the tensions have mounted.
NSU is trading right at the bottom of a descenidng triangle pattern at the moment as trading volume has risen recently.
Anyone else think it's remarkable, but perhaps not surprising, that Jim Sinclair has made no real mention of this conflict on his generally excellent web site, Jin Sinclair's MineSet. It's remarkable because Jim is generally quick to point out each and every conflict and potential conflict going on in the wrold that could have any geopolitical spill over on Gold. I guess it's not great publicity for TRE if the conflict involves a potential regional war in TRE's neighborhood. Plus, it might be a bit impolitic of him to do that because of his ties to the Tanzanian government and his promotion of Tanzania as a stable country and good investment. Still, the fact that he's been silent about this kind of makes you wonder about his site's motto, that "the Spin really does stop here."
9 comments:
Careful there, posters who have voiced "dissent" in the past have been called bashers at best, and short-sellers to be pursued in court at worst.....(Needless to say, this remark is tongue in cheek).
The question is larger: What good can come of unwavering focus on all that is negative in this world,
searching day-in-day-out for evidence of calamity present or future? It may be a philosophical question yet I feel it is pertinent. Being aware is one thing; filling one's life with negativity is harmful to Self.
Unfortunately, gold bugs are more likely to fall prey to this than investors with a different industry focus. I know because I've been there. Much better to keep a safe distance from the bottomless pit, watch events with dispassion and trade the sector like any other....JMHO.
Trav
Re the decline in TRE over the past few days :
May be connected to the removal of Tanzania Royalty from some Canadian gold miners index. Mention in more detail was made on the TRE yahoo MB a couple of days back.
why the focus on TRE?
they're just an exploration company in tanzania right?
Thanks for your comments.
1. Trav, we've talked about this before. as much as I hate to say it, investing in Gold is, at least in some ways, a bet on the shi* hitting the fan either geopolitically, financially or economically. That isn't the whole story behind Gold, as there is also a positive demand growth story driven by the continuing development of India and China etc.
But there's no doubt in my mind that a part of the Gold demand is related to the geopolitical and financial chaos. In that sense, I think Gold is not for the squemish. I agree that having an "unwavering focus on all that is negative" is counterproductive and unnecessary. But completely ignoring the negative factors, is probably not very helpful either and in fact, possibly dangerous from the investing point of view.
Anyway, thanks for your comments and warm regards.
2. "Anonymous", thanks for the info about the removal of TRE from that Canadian index. If that in fact the case, that may have contributed a little to TRE's decline. though personally, I doubt that that had that much effect. Is it a well known index or one which is reflected in any ETFs or Funds?
Regards,
Titan
I thought it was funny the reaction my link to this blog entry received on the TRE Yahoo Finance message board.
Beware the dangers of becoming a fan rather than an investor!
Here is the update on the situation:
http://www.pbs.org/newshour/updates/africa/july-dec06/somalia_12-15.html
Looks like there is a deadline of December 19 for the withdrawal of Ethiopian troops. I'm guessing there could be some fireworks there soon. I wonder when Jim will post a comment on this.
titan - your post on Somalia has provoked some reactions, good for you. Your observations are why I avoid that region of Africa. Zambia, okay, DRC, sometimes, Horn of Africa...not just yet. Clearly Sinclair is in a somewhat awkward position but I am sure that there are things he could say to address the situation that are will within regulatory guidelines.
The comments from anonymous regarding the lens through which goldbugs view the world, constantly scanning the horizons for indications that The End Is Near are worth contemplating. It is not just goldbugs, it tends to be the case with the Peak Oil folks. I was interested to see when I attended the Associaton for the Study of Peak Oil conference in Boston, that there seemed to be a decided effort that was focusing on paths to solutions and not just identifying the (seemingly overwhelming) problem.
I tend to be aligned with your views. It's one thing to actually desire to see financial crisis, it's a different thing to acknowledge the possibility of a non-linear event and to be positioned accordingly. You can buy some gold and sock it away without wondering every day if the market will collapse. And if it turns out you never need them, they will retain their value and can be kept as heirlooms.
So, I think it's useful to read Dr. Faber (BoomDoomGloom Report) because what he has to say is important, but I like to augment it with Dr. Dyer who reminds me that there are deeper aspects to life than the market. Truth, beauty, a connection to the source...
tsl
SlowLane - Thanks for checking in. Appreciate your comments.
I agree with you about Faber. The scenarios he sets forth in his "Tomorrow's Gold: Asia's Age of Discovery", in which he talks about a possible nuclear war between the U.S. and China seem needlessly alarmist.
On the other hand, I think it's also pretty clear that we're no longer in the '90s and that the post communist collapse optimism has quickly worn off. It really wouldn't surprise me if our generation has to deal with war at some point on a personal basis, rather than just reading about it. In that respect, historically, I think we've been pretty lucky (I'm assuming, of course, that you are like me and have never experienced war on a personal level).
I hope it doesn't come to that and I think there'sa a realistic possibility of heading it off. But it seems that many of the wars in the world, and especially their duration and effects came as a surprise.
I agre with you that, having an investment like Gold, provides an insurance policy in that respect, against possibly horrible consequences.
Regards,
Titan
titan,
you responded to everyone else...
why such a big focus on TRE?
are you short? or are you trying to scare weak hands to pick up cheap shares?
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