Saturday, October 14, 2006

Gold Seasonality



Comments: Ever since the sell off in early September, the Gold price has been counter seasonal. As shown in the above chart, which juxtaposes, the seasonal trend over the actual Gold price action, until late August, seasonality was a pretty good predicter of price trends. Ever since jewelry demand proved insufficient to sustain a gold price over $600, the action has been counter seasonal. Interestingly, now that the seasonal strength is supposed to ebb in mid October, the Gold price is starting to feel like it wants to rally. Fortunately, although the Asian jewlery demand has not been sufficient to increase the Gold price, on the other hand, it's been strong enough such that there hasn't been any drop off in price during Asian trade--where they've kept the bid at or slightly above the NYMEX closing price.


Comments: Right now, we are in the middle of the strong seasonal jewelry demand for Gold. It will be critical for fundamentally-driven investment Gold demand to resurface within the next few months. Failure for the investment fundamentals (whether currency-related or geopolitical) to imrove could lead to a bad showing for Gold next year once seasonal jewlery demand dries up. In this regard, I believe we have been going through a pause in the investment driven demand, but I guess we'll see.

Comments: Looks like $606 may be the next point of resistance for Gold.

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