Friday, March 02, 2007

Gold to XAU Ratio

Comments: The Gold to XAU ratio flashed an ominous sign on Tuesday by appearing to break out of a long symmetric triangle consolidation. If that is the case, the "price" objective for the ratio would be around 5.7 to 5.8, which would mean continued massive underperformance of the mining shares to Gold for at least several months.

However, it's unclear that it's going to necessarily go that way just yet. The USD has done basically nothing during the last few days and Oil is still well over $60 per barrel so the current action in Gold is a bit strange. However if the Gold to XAU ratio continues to climb above 5.00, the writing will be on the wall for the miners even if Gold maintains itself above $600--which I think would be quite likely.

Comments: Upon a further measurement, it appears that the price target would be 6.00 not 5.80. That is suspiciously close to a potential channel line.

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