Wednesday, January 31, 2007

Rebasing the Penny (Metals Market Wrap-Up)

1. Although the Bema shareholders approved the merger with KGC on Tuesday by 91% of the votes cast representing 59% of Bema's outstanding shares apparently the KGC - BGO merger is still subject to certain conditions such that it will take place "within the next few weeks" and not shortly after the shareholder approval as I had previously expected. My apologies for the misinformation. Still, KGC remains in a breakout of a descending triangle with a price target of $15.50. My other pick, GOLD, looks like it's getting ready to have that massive breakout. If it can clear the $23.75 to $24.00, it could enjoy a very large move. I'd watch it carefully if I were you. CUP also looks good on this pullback, though Copper has been kind of horrible.

2. I've been looking for a site that is for Oil, what Kitco is for Gold and I think I found one recently. RIGZONE.com has plenty of energy commodity-related infomercial in a format similar to Kitco's. They have commodity prices, industry and company news as well as the Rig Count which can be an issue during the hurricane season.

3. In case you were wondering how much of South African top gold producer's gold is produced locally in South Africa: AngloGold produces about half its gold from local mines, Gold Fields produces almost three-quarters of its gold in South Africa after buying South Deep, the world's largest deposit, and Harmony produces 90 percent of its metal here.

4. You probably already know that certain U.S. coins are worth more for their melt commodity value than for their face value. Though, there is some controversy about whether this is actually true. Recently, I found an article about this issue in Reuters. "Sharply rising prices of metals such as copper and nickel have meant the face value of pennies and nickels are worth less than the material that they are made of, increasing the risk that speculators could melt the coins and sell them for a profit." The timing of this article, considering that base metals seem to have topped out and have considerably depreciated recently, seems a bit odd. Interestingly, the article mentions that a senior economist at the Chicago Fed has suggested rebasing the penny at 5 cents, to fight penny hoarding by people who are hoping to sell pennies for their melt value. "Rebasing the penny would ... debase the five-cent piece and put it safely away from its melting point," he added. I wonder how rebasing the penny would actually work. Ofcourse, if the penny is actually rebased, then that might be all the more reason to load up on pennies right now.

5. Today is the FOMC interest rate decision. I will post the FOMC's latest statement showing revisions vis-a-vis the previous statement. Things feel somewhat bullish now in Gold, after a bit of a technical downtrend break and consolidation recently.

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