Comments: Not crazy about the action today. Sold most of my precious metal holdings after the HUI couldn't break the downtrend line. It's too early to tell though whether we're going to get a swoon, or whether this is just a pause before the Thanksgiving holiday. I'm carefully watching the slope of the 200 day moving average. On the XAU, the slope has turned down, thus confirming the bearish crossover of the 50 below the 200 day moving average. Will the 200 day moving average do the same on the HUI? That would make me more bearish. Right now, I'm just stepping to the sidelines. One other thing to note, is that it looks like today may end on a shooting star candlestick, which can be a bearish reversal candlestick.
Comments: This is the chart that holds the key. We need to keep in mind that above $600, physical/jewelry demand has not proven itself. So it's all about which way the dollar goes now. There's a big move brewing in the USD judging by falling volatility as measured by the bollinger band width. The other indicators (the fact that it's trading below the 50 and 200 day moving averages and below 50 RSI) seem to point towards a drop. But we can't be sure, that's why I've decided to take the more cautious route of stepping to the side, especially after the mediocre action in the stocks today.
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